Market exchange

FB I wanna try to find those animales. Im curious.

I understand I have to look at animals' market prices. I have access to that

How many months back do I need to look to find the pattern?

I apologize in advance for any frustration I may cause others in answering escalonilla.  Escalonilla has provided good information to many and I feel that I should try and do the same by answering.  

@escalonilla

I have little doubt that you possess the technical ability as I asked a while ago what I wanted to know and you answered.

In summary, I have found EV analysis to be much like an "early warning system."  I'll include the two animals for illustration.  The earlier one is able to see that there is something unusual in any animal's EV ratio then the sooner one can choose to act by purchasing (even selling).  

Your question is great.  How many months back?  If one is lucky in beginning then one may be able to see the animal or animals right away.  If someone has been purchasing that animal before you recognize it then there is a chance that you will spot it much later if at all.  

You will not like what I will say next:  We are on the same market and I have been doing this for quite a while.  But to your advantage, one who feels somewhat certain of what they see will purchase the item(s) deliberately and slowly.  One is able to acquire more and cheaply by not alerting the general market in any way.  (Often I have left the first page with the cheap item only so that others will continue to list cheaply and I come back and buy buy buy buy buy buy buy.  

I want to beat the rumor or grapevine threads because many read them and that sends the first open alert.  How many months?  The earlier one can see the item(s) then the better.

Maybe you can recall that once I asked to buy all of your Albino Bats.  I had my reason for buying long ago and you had your reason.  But for whatever your reason was, you would not sell them to me and you were very smart by not doing so.  

We are able to spot the item but the developers decide when they feel it is necessary for them to make an adjustment.  And there are other players who buy for other reasons, say breeding perhaps.  Some are buying and selling and their methods are not so logical or defined but they buy and sell.  And we are only two players on the same market among other markets and players in the game.

@escalonilla

The sooner one begins and has a developed spreadsheet then the sooner trends will emerge. 

The good part:  Let's assume that one does not identify the item(s) immediately due to market behavior but their ratio analysis signals other animals instead and they can support their conclusion.

So their analysis does not signal animal one or two but perhaps animal three and four or six. If they choose to buy then they will most likely hold longer until they are able to sell at a profit but the day will most likely come.  

Based on the igms I have received, some are so very very close that I know that others can see from the method.  

On our market you recently listed several lots of a feed component of one of the two animals. This farm under cut you, sold its lots first and then bought  few of your lots for future investment.  (Over time the complete chain of an identified animal can be played.)  

With certainty, the market will find out!  After masses are finished producing dogs, frogs and bats then they will most likely begin to produce the two animals with increasing urgency.  The feed price of one has already doubled on our market in less than a month.

In the future I will be more than happy to offer my opinion to you or answer any question(s) you may have regarding EV analysis but through igms.  If you receive no answer from me in a day or so then please contact meba091 .  Any discussion would be mutually beneficial.


Hearing from you is always unexpected and a welcome surprise.

Last thing:  I have found that review is much easier if one separates the different classes of animals:  birds, mammals, reptiles ...  and even does this on BAHA and the main farm.  Two or three decimal places appears best as conclusions seem to jump right out.

@escalonilla

Sometimes I could care less about an EV ratio.  For instance:  This farm has named the only Ladybug it will ever keep ...  Lea (after our forum member cylentlea123).  Buying over time, Lea the Ladybug has a few thousand friends now.  Ladybugs are an anthropoid and the methods does enable me to determine exactly where the ladybug falls in the class of ladybugs.

cya

Um..... EXCUSE me Mr. Broke, but the ladybug is Lea the ladybug not irisa. 
Just go to my thread and you shall see..... 

@cylentlea123

You are absolutely right, no insult intended, and you pleasantly come to mind more than you know.  The post has been edited and thank you.   

Perfect!  Once the farm had a fish with a name and she quite the game and ALL the fish went away.  Fish have returned!  I hope Irisa won't mind if there is now Irisa the fish or the duck? (decisions decisions)

Now I know the farm needs a chart with the animal names.

And thanks, now I know I should name the donkey "broke" and be done.

Now, Now why don't you all include me in your conversation. Where is my place ? Where is my place ?


I do not try to understand what I cannot understand right now. May be I will be able to understand it in future dates. So as a good advocate I take an sine-die adjournments in several issues. Moreover it makes me tired trying to understand when I don't have the energy for it, so I give it a go-by. After all these years only now I understood the concept of EV ratio that broke, meba, mooboy and others said. Now speaking of Queen Meba ! I miss you. Our viking army needs you. Where are you ? Please cut short your foreign trip and visit us for a while and may be then you can resume it.

broke, you are right about being tired. Sometimes it happens so. It means we are to take a break till we re-energize. So I suggest that as a remedy for FOCD. For several weeks together I too felt very tired. I could not play my farm. Not only the game was very stressful,   several real life factors are causing our whole community emotional and other turmoils. So I cannot concentrate on my farm. Might take another week for me to normalize.  Even now I am not going to harvest my farm. Leaving it as such. Let's see what drop rate frog & peacock pen gives.

So I will join you all may be this weekend if possible or next weekend if not possible. So do happy arguments friends.

Also writing long and analytical posts will certainly have a toll on our energy.

Zen, what you said about 2010 is true. Really true.

Thanks for the reply FB.


English not being my first language makes it even harder to process but I understand most of it after reading it twice. I need a couple more times  xD

Even if I had the data, I wouldnt be able to see which animal it is because, as you said, you are buying just small quantities. Therefore the price doesnt change much and I cannot find it that way.

So I guess I have to look deeper and check feed and crops/fruits prices.

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I do not recall selling feed lately lol!
I'm sure I did but I have no idea what it was cause I rarely sell feed.

Ohh well, I sold skunk and eagles feed because I bought it before the rumor of their new workshops was out. But that was it.
It's obvious that their feed doubled because of these new additions.
So I rule those ones out.

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I will check later feed prices over the last weeks for a pattern.

These are the feeds that have increased a lot lately

anaconda since dec
sloth  more than double since october
elephant  more than double since october
owl more than double since july
kingfisher more than double since october
fox almost double since deb
eagle and skunk cuz their new workshop
camel breeding event
groundhod dobule in the last 2 weeks
panda and parrot ( I guess all Baha animals in general)
peacock future breeding

These are the ones I found.
There were other with high peaks at the ned of dec beginning of jan but went down to normal price over this past week.

Cant do much more today, so Im gonna go watch Sons of Anarchy.
A few more episodes to finish it

Night!

Although we are on the same market, this farm cannot stop your farm completely.  There are things it can do to make trading quite difficult.

What are the items (columns) you have listed in your spreadsheet?

@escalonilla
(I responded before with 3 or 4 posts.  I deleted them all but hope you saw them.  I had received a message saying I was cutting too much time and too fast for learning the method.)

Each spread sheet is organized about the same.  I have spread sheets for crops, animals, feed, tree fruit, breeding animals, products, and craft goods.  

Here is basic set-up for animals.

Column 1:  The animals are listed.  They are listed by area (BAHA and Main Farm).  Then under each a cell is used to title the class of animals (mammals, birds, reptile ....).  Under each I have the animal listed.

Column 2:  The exchange value (EV)

Column 3:  Quantity (I'll say more)

Column 4:  Market Value AND date 

Column 5:  EV ratio and date  (cells are automatically computed)

Column 6:  Total Market Value and date (cells are automatically computed)

Column 7: (I color it all red only to separate the next update)

Times passes and you can update if you wish.  Simply copy the formats from columns 3, 4, 5 and 6 into new columns 8, 9, 10 and 11.  

I use 2 or 3 decimal places.  

The above is a first good set up.    

The quantity column is a choice YOU make.  If you do not want the information the don't use it.  If YOU want, then you may create a column for production time (with water or no water or with power feed or with  certain buff .... up to you.)

In the future, instead of classifying the animal itself, one may create a column which codes the animal.  One is able to make more efficient use of the sort function.  This information does not change and never needs to be updated.

ROFL!  BP has all of this information and more and will never give us that information because they know what some of us will do with it.  

The columns I have described are very very simple.  YOU can provide others to tell you more ... but up to you.  

I don't know if you are following.  If you would like an exact coding system I can provide it. New columns would need to be set-up but never need update.  The result is that one must use the sort function to see.... for instance:  all mammals or all birds or all BAHA animals or all base breeding animals .... )  

(I saw your pear listings.  Pears have their part in the EV analysis picture also.)  

Thank you for responding.

Market crash!!! 

I'm back! One Two I conquered the snowy and one (icy beast) mountains of Norway    and Mir didn't even see it! hahaha Before I left I was too busy to write here.

I have enjoyed reading though. So much information presented about EV analysis - exemplary too. Thank you Broke! 

I really laughed when I read about "the Meba index" and wondered what that could be about. I am sure you could make an index about me driving you insane - when and how...and even how much   but I would not like that presented here. Noooooo    
Seriously, I am looking forward to seeing what you will present here next. And thank you for naming it after me   

Lea thank you for the nice words    

About the charts. When I first began and found interest in EV I didn't even know how to work excel. I only learned the most necessary to get started. Now I have a newer version and can sort (probably I also could before but didn't know) and I find that function really good. I have the items listed alphabetically to make it easier to go through the mkt. and then I use the sort function to looking at various categories I have available from the coding. That is really a smart function   And the good part is that one doesn't have to have it from the beginning but can add it in whenever one wants it.

All this may seem a lot of work to some of you but it is also fun and challenging - it is to me anyways...like a puzzle.

Thanks again Broke for sharing.

GuineaUp Did you buy?    Arh it's so annoying when mkt crashes like that!

You went to Norway without telling me